Second Guessing

“Life is a gamble with incredible odds; if it were a bet, you wouldn’t take it.” Wisdom from a Fortune Cookie

There is an evil under the sun common among men. It’s called “second guessing,” a useless exercise. We all do it, but one gender has elevated the trait to an art form, while the other writhes in remorse at the repercussions. Which would pose interesting speculations best suited at high tea or on the sofa of a shrink where blame could always be deflected and ascribed elsewhere.

We wonder, is life a guess, a game of chance? A roll of the dice? Probabilities impossible to calculate? Actuarial statistics dreamed up by madmen attempting to subvert nature with subterfuge? A casino gamble? What’s the use of a second guess, unless the first one failed? Oh, the dilemma!

At Dawg U., Statistical Analysis was a core course, inflicted upon undergrads to overcome in order to graduate. I say “overcome,” because it took two tries for me. It was one of those abstract subjects best grasped by the left side of the brain. Apparently my family’s DNA lacked this brain function.

On my first attempt a D appeared on the roster beside my name. Since it was not an F, I assumed in naiveté the D stood for Done. Wrong. So I second guessed my first choice of day school, deciding night school offered a higher probability of success. A good decision.

Night school is a wonderful invention to overcome the intellectual inadequacies of idiots and for purging the undergrad pipeline. Especially for classes like Statistical Analysis. Attendees were mostly exhausted workers or inept frat boys spending daddy’s money gambling and guzzling inebriants. Most of them are now CEO’s on the Fortune 500 list. Besides a couple of accountant types (one I recognize on the White House staff), I was the only one who stayed awake. So, the curve grading got me an A, supposedly meaning Awake, since I was still, statistically speaking, an imbecile.

But I digress. Why do we second guess? Usually in defense of the failed first guess. Who can deny it’s impossible to make an “educated” guess today, what with the information overload available on the internet. But really, is all that info any better than the simple “luck of the draw,” or “right place, right time?” No. There’s never enough info! The internet is a diversion, devised by the inventor of the leaf blower…a lot of noise and a little bit of work.

Drilling down deep in my right-sided brain, I considered “intuition.” You know, decisions based on feelings. At least if a second guess is necessary it could be blamed on a glitch in the spiritual communication with a higher power speaking through the medium of a carrot. Something or someone to blame must always be our backup plan in second guesses.

Don’t forget “instinct,” that fixed pattern of behavior that responds to certain stimuli. Kinda like your dog…you never have to second guess his hot button--food. As evolutionary creatures, we drag around certain innate motivations, like personal pronouns…I, me, my and such. With such greedy and fearful companions, how can we ever advance beyond the small universe of our self?

Now consider the epitome of all equivocations…“primal motivations.” Here at last may be the clue that leads us to the second-guessing pinnacle of truth. Examine the word “primal” closely. Recognize your lineage? That’s right…humans belong to the same group of primates as monkeys and apes. Only difference is we’ve come down from the trees. Some of us.

So here we are, faced with the ultimate truth that time is going to run out on us. Second guess your decisions all you want, but remember the very hairs of our heads are numbered, which would presuppose that our names have numbers on them as well. So spin the roulette wheel… it’ll get us back to Statistical Analysis.

That abysmal class taught me one peculiar truth---too much cogitation leads to insanity. Its iron rod will beat the joy, mystery, thrill and excitement from life. Buy the ticket, take the ride. Roll the dice and let the chips fall where they may…Just Do It, and leave second guessing to history.

Bud Hearn
April 29, 2010